Is Facebook on it’s way out? Already?

     I’ve been telling friends for the last two months or so, that Facebook is already on the way out.  Most people look at me funny when I say that, since most of my and your friend are just getting on it for the first time.  It might also go against conventional wisdom when you see articles this this one from Venture Beat reporting that social networks like MySpace and Facebook are seeing some of their busiest times ever.  I say we are seeing the beginning of the end.  MySpace is already on the way out, and Facebook is not long behind.  This time next year we will be taking about something else, so don’t get too hooked.

Here are a few reasons why…

1.  It is getting wide acceptance from the masses. Heck, my mom might even be on it!  So this should be a good thing, right?

Social networks work like nuclear reactions.  One person gets several people talking, those get several more and so on.  This concept works great when the numbers are small.  The problems start when the weight of communication becomes too much and people cannot keep up with it all.  Ever tried keeping up with 150 to 300 friends all at once?  This becomes very frustrating for most and they begin to walk away.  Like in the beginning, when critical mass gets individuals to join and update in unbelievable numbers, the same effect happens in reverse when folks start to walk away.  Sites no longer get new info, people stop updating their status and the chain reaction process slows to a crawl or worse, whole networks stop.  Once that happens, it’s all over but the crying.  Remember the popularity of instant messaging a year or two ago?  AOL before that?

2.  Application overload.

I must get invited to at least 3 or 4 new applications a day.  I ignore them all (sorry folks) but the sheer number of new and really bad applications continue to grow.  There are a few good ones out there, but their popularity comes and goes very quickly.  The attraction is not enough to get people to stay.  I am also finding that more and more people are getting turned off by all of this.  I’ve seen the discontentment in status updates as well as notes, messages and external blogs.  The main stream media is turning as well!  Not a good sign.

3.  The ads are getting sketchy

I’m having a hard time deciding which ads are legit and which are just junk (or even worse, criminal).  If I’m tech savvy and having that problem, what about the rest of you?  Remember, they get paid when you click on them.  If you are not clicking…then what?  If people really lose trust in the site, away they go.

4.  Facebook Connect doesn’t have history in it’s favor.

In a January 2nd post, Nicholas Carlson from Silicon Ally Insider outlined Facebook’s plan to move away from the now famous widgets that have been popular but widely unprofitable to an new service called Facebook Connect.  He writes:

Only now, instead of asking developers to come to Facebook and build apps for its platform, Facebook is taking its "social graph" to the rest of the Internet through a service called Facebook Connect, which allows Facebook members to sign into participating third-party Web sites using their Facebook accounts.

The prediction here is that the new plan works and that Facebook Connect becomes what the Facebook app platform was supposed to be: a way for Facebook to benefit itself and other companies by bringing what it knows about its users to businesses around the Internet.

While Mr. Carlson predicts success, I am doubtful.  I have watched several tech companies try to make the jump from one business plan to another with very little success in making money (which is what this is really all about). 

I do know this, from these problems, a new platform will grow.  Like always, something will grow from the ashes that address the current problems and find new and better ways to move forward.  What that is, I am not sure yet.  It could be twitter like or something that builds on the popularity of blogs.  I’ll keep you posted.  Just don’t say I didn’t warn you!

Remember, I search so you don’t have to!